I want to like the sentimental favorites in Sunday's AFC and NFC championship games, but I can't seem to shake the lingering doubts.
In the AFC, I would love nothing more than to see the Jets ruin another Colts season. I am a firm believer that resting players instead of chasing a perfect season should not be rewarded. And I believe that decision kept my team, the Steelers, out of the playoffs.
The Jets are red hot and not because their coach's wild comments are the darling of the New York media. It is because all that talking has taken most of the pressure off the players. Instead of talking about what it would be like to play in the Super Bowl or upset the favored Colts, the players mostly are responding to their coach's comments. While I do think Rex Ryan believes what he said about his team, I think there is more there than simple vanity. The last thing he needs is for his players to remember they were never supposed to get this far. Ryan is helping maintain the team's momentum by consistently telling everyone the Jets are good.
I think the Jets can stay on their roll this weekend. This two players that will determine the outcome: Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez and Colts tight end Dallas Clark.
Clark had seven catches for 59 yards against the Ravens, including four receptions that resulted in first downs. Since the Colts' top wide receiver, Reggie Wayne, will be double-covered the entire game, Clark will become Colts quarterback Peyton Manning's go-to guy.
If the Jets figure a way to keep the ball out of Clark's hands, it will put them in a great position.
A rookie quarterback started last year's AFC Championship game and probably decided the game. Joe Flacco of the Ravens completed 13 of 30 passes for 141 yards and three interceptions in their loss to the Steelers 23-14. His most crucial turnover of the game was a Troy Polamalu interception return for a touchdown late in the fourth quarter. If Sanchez plays similar to Flacco, the Jets are doomed, no matter how well the Jets defense plays.
Ideally, Sanchez should not have to throw the ball a lot because that would mean the Jets running game is clicking and the team is in the lead. Sanchez has two touchdown passes and one interception in the playoffs. He needs to manage the game effectively for the Jets to win it.
I want to pick the Jets. I really, really want to pick the Jets. But I don't think Sanchez will play a mistake-free game. He'll have one turnover, either a fumble or interception, which will be enough. The Colts will win a close one, 24-21.
In the NFC, the sentimental pick is the Saints, who are in their best position ever to get to a Super Bowl. The two players that will shape this game are the two most important players on the field: Saints quarterback Drew Brees and Vikings QB Brett Favre.
Brees is playing at home and at the helm of a monster offense. Favre is at the helm of a monster offense, too, but is on the road. The Vikings may be familiar with playing in a dome, but the noise when Favre is on the field will be deafening. Favre will not be able to make too many changes at the line of scrimmage and probably will deal with false-start and delay-of-game penalties.
Favre also must deal with long-time teammate Darren Sharper in the Saints secondary. If you don't think Sharper knows Favre's tendencies, you're sorely mistaken. That should be good for at least one interception, either by Sharper or another Saints defender.
With a sizable advantage because of the crowd noise, I think Brees will do a better job managing the game. In his other NFC Championship appearance, Brees did not play all that well, but the entire Saints team fell flat that day, losing big to the Bears. Brees learned from that experience and will use it to his advantage.
Favre on the other hand, will be undone by his gunslinger mentality. He may have played within himself during the regular season and divisional playoffs, but with the pressure on, I think he'll revert back to his old self. If the Vikings fall behind or can't get their running game on track early, Favre will be throwing the ball a lot. At that point, it's only be a matter of time before he begins making mistakes.
Both teams will put points on the board, but the Saints will win it with defense in the second half. With the Vikings trailing by a touchdown early in the fourth quarter, Favre will throw an interception that the Saints will convert into a field goal. The Saints will win 31-21 and earn their first Super Bowl berth.
Friday, January 22, 2010
What is a great season for the Hoosiers?
The Hoosiers have won two games in a row, following last night's win at Penn State.
It was the team's first conference win on the road this year and the first for Coach Tom Crean since his tenure at Indiana began. The team is 3-3 in conference play and 9-9 on the season, both already improved from last year.
The Hoosiers have a win over a top 25 team, Pittsburgh, and two conference wins over teams with winning records, Michigan and Minnesota. And as of this morning, Indiana is tied for fifth in the Big Ten.
The most obvious improvement from last season, as well as earlier this season, came from Crean during last night's post-game press conference.
"There was no panic in our guys' voices; there was no deer-in-the-headlight look," Crean said after the game, according to comments posted on IUHoosiers.com.
Looking ahead, I'm wondering if we adjust our expectations for this season.
Before the season started, I thought a .500 or better finish was possible, but after watching the results in the pre-conference season, I wondered whether this team would win more than seven or eight games. This team has improved so much over the last month, I'm wondering if these Hoosiers could reach 15 wins or more by the end of the season.
Indiana has 12 games remaining, including four games against Iowa and Northwestern, two of the three teams below them in the Big Ten standings. The Hoosiers also will play Michigan State and Wisconsin, the top two teams in the conference, only once. The game with the Spartans is in Bloomington, which will should slightly diminish the size of the task.
Realistically, could the Hoosiers finish the season 15-15 heading into the Big Ten tournament? If the Hoosiers continuing playing with the poise they found last night, I could see them sweeping or taking three of four against Iowa and Northwestern. I also don't think a win at home over Purdue is out of the question. And these Hoosiers are not the same team that was blown out by Ohio State. When the Buckeyes come to Bloomington it will be a much different game.
That's five or six potential wins. Could this team steal the game at Minnesota or against Michigan State?
No matter what happens, year two of the Tom Crean era is turning out to be a big improvement. I think it's a reasonable goal to go for .500 for the year. If that happens, Indiana may begin the 2010-2011 season contending instead of a rebuilding.
What do you think? Tell me your expectations for the remainder of the IU season.
Next game: Against Iowa, 6 p.m. Sunday. The game will be on Big Ten Network.
It was the team's first conference win on the road this year and the first for Coach Tom Crean since his tenure at Indiana began. The team is 3-3 in conference play and 9-9 on the season, both already improved from last year.
The Hoosiers have a win over a top 25 team, Pittsburgh, and two conference wins over teams with winning records, Michigan and Minnesota. And as of this morning, Indiana is tied for fifth in the Big Ten.
The most obvious improvement from last season, as well as earlier this season, came from Crean during last night's post-game press conference.
"There was no panic in our guys' voices; there was no deer-in-the-headlight look," Crean said after the game, according to comments posted on IUHoosiers.com.
Looking ahead, I'm wondering if we adjust our expectations for this season.
Before the season started, I thought a .500 or better finish was possible, but after watching the results in the pre-conference season, I wondered whether this team would win more than seven or eight games. This team has improved so much over the last month, I'm wondering if these Hoosiers could reach 15 wins or more by the end of the season.
Indiana has 12 games remaining, including four games against Iowa and Northwestern, two of the three teams below them in the Big Ten standings. The Hoosiers also will play Michigan State and Wisconsin, the top two teams in the conference, only once. The game with the Spartans is in Bloomington, which will should slightly diminish the size of the task.
Realistically, could the Hoosiers finish the season 15-15 heading into the Big Ten tournament? If the Hoosiers continuing playing with the poise they found last night, I could see them sweeping or taking three of four against Iowa and Northwestern. I also don't think a win at home over Purdue is out of the question. And these Hoosiers are not the same team that was blown out by Ohio State. When the Buckeyes come to Bloomington it will be a much different game.
That's five or six potential wins. Could this team steal the game at Minnesota or against Michigan State?
No matter what happens, year two of the Tom Crean era is turning out to be a big improvement. I think it's a reasonable goal to go for .500 for the year. If that happens, Indiana may begin the 2010-2011 season contending instead of a rebuilding.
What do you think? Tell me your expectations for the remainder of the IU season.
Next game: Against Iowa, 6 p.m. Sunday. The game will be on Big Ten Network.
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Hoosiers beginning to get it...
It took me a couple days to understand the significance of the IU win over Minnesota on Sunday.
The Hoosiers defeated the Gophers 81-78 in overtime, despite blowing a 15-point lead in the second half. This game was another sign the team is improving and growing.
There were questionable calls by the officials. The Hoosiers did not fold.
There were missed shots. The Hoosiers did not fold.
There were missed free throws. The Hoosiers did not fold.
Minnesota built a quick 5-point lead in overtime. The Hoosiers did not fold.
It wasn't a perfect game. The offense became too conservative late in the second half as the team tried to protect its lead. IU sacrificed points to run the clock and Minnesota was able to tie the game with a few second left.
Still, there were more things to like about this performance. The evolution of Christian Watford is particularly exciting. Early in the season, Watford appeared to be playing timidly. Against Minnesota he played much more aggressive under the boards and has become a primary option on the offensive end. He scored 16 points and now is averaging 13 points per game, second-most on the team. I wished Watford had received more touches late in the second half. He could have iced the game during regulation.
The team also is improving on the defensive end, particularly rebounding the ball. IU grabbed 43 rebounds, including 20 offensive boards, while Minnesota managed 31 total rebounds, including 10 offensive.
If you have followed the Hoosiers over the past several years, you know IU has not been able to rebound the ball well at all. And too often late in games, IU had one shot per possession, while opponents had two or more. The Hoosiers had 17 second-chance points on Sunday to the Gophers' 12, a direct result of the rebounding edge.
The offensive collapse late in the game, I think a result of overly conservative play-calling, has to be corrected. This seems to happen all too often when the Hoosiers build a lead in the second half. But there are signs the toughness Coach Tom Crean is preaching is sinking in.
This win was another glimpse of this team's upside. I think they are starting to get it.
Note: The Hoosiers stand at 8-9 on the season, and 2-3 in the Big Ten. They travel to Penn State on Thursday. The game will be on ESPN2.
The Hoosiers defeated the Gophers 81-78 in overtime, despite blowing a 15-point lead in the second half. This game was another sign the team is improving and growing.
There were questionable calls by the officials. The Hoosiers did not fold.
There were missed shots. The Hoosiers did not fold.
There were missed free throws. The Hoosiers did not fold.
Minnesota built a quick 5-point lead in overtime. The Hoosiers did not fold.
It wasn't a perfect game. The offense became too conservative late in the second half as the team tried to protect its lead. IU sacrificed points to run the clock and Minnesota was able to tie the game with a few second left.
Still, there were more things to like about this performance. The evolution of Christian Watford is particularly exciting. Early in the season, Watford appeared to be playing timidly. Against Minnesota he played much more aggressive under the boards and has become a primary option on the offensive end. He scored 16 points and now is averaging 13 points per game, second-most on the team. I wished Watford had received more touches late in the second half. He could have iced the game during regulation.
The team also is improving on the defensive end, particularly rebounding the ball. IU grabbed 43 rebounds, including 20 offensive boards, while Minnesota managed 31 total rebounds, including 10 offensive.
If you have followed the Hoosiers over the past several years, you know IU has not been able to rebound the ball well at all. And too often late in games, IU had one shot per possession, while opponents had two or more. The Hoosiers had 17 second-chance points on Sunday to the Gophers' 12, a direct result of the rebounding edge.
The offensive collapse late in the game, I think a result of overly conservative play-calling, has to be corrected. This seems to happen all too often when the Hoosiers build a lead in the second half. But there are signs the toughness Coach Tom Crean is preaching is sinking in.
This win was another glimpse of this team's upside. I think they are starting to get it.
Note: The Hoosiers stand at 8-9 on the season, and 2-3 in the Big Ten. They travel to Penn State on Thursday. The game will be on ESPN2.
Thursday, January 14, 2010
Taking a break from sports
If you haven't heard about the earthquake in Haiti, maybe you're living under a rock. The pictures and video coming out of the country are showing unimaginable tragedy. See here, here and here.
If you want to help, one way to donate $10 that would be charged to your cell phone bill is to text "HAITI" to 90999.
You also can give to The American Red Cross and/or check this link to the White House blog, which has other resources.
If you want to help, one way to donate $10 that would be charged to your cell phone bill is to text "HAITI" to 90999.
You also can give to The American Red Cross and/or check this link to the White House blog, which has other resources.
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
NFL Divisional Playoff Predictions
My predictions on Wild Card Weekend proved true: the Ravens knocked out the Patriots and the Bengals went down in flames.
The Jets and Ravens are being referred to as Cinderellas as they head to San Diego and Indianapolis this weekend, but I really don't see it that way. Both teams are hot and must be playing with a lot of confidence after beating division champs.
The Ravens proved once again the old adage that defense wins championships is true. They intimidated and flat-out manhandled the Patriots on Sunday. Early turnovers essentially ended the game, but the Ravens' running game was strong as well, keeping the Patriots offense off the field once the team regained its bearings.
I'm not discounting the Patriots had injury problems that hindered their offense. Who knows how a healthy Wes Welker would have changed the game plan. But none of the Patriots' offensive weapons were working in the first half. It was so bad the New England crowd began booing the team. Even if Welker was in the game, I'm not sure the Ravens' would have not won that game easily.
The Ravens now find themselves facing another team with a big offense this weekend. The Colts scored only 17 points at Baltimore in Week 11, but still won 17-15. The Ravens forced two Peyton Manning interceptions and recovered another fumble. Manning threw for 299 yards, but only one touchdown.
The Ravens were winning by a point in the fourth quarter, when they allowed a 25-yard field goal that ended up being the game-winner for the Colts. The game played out perfectly for the Ravens, but the offense could not get the job done late in the game when Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco threw an interception deep in Colts territory.
This leads me to Prediction No. 1 for the Divisional Playoffs: The Ravens are going to upset the Colts and return to the AFC Championship game.
The Colts have no momentum after taking three weeks off, which I think is a big problem. It will take a couple drives for the Colts offense to get into rhythm and if the Ravens again force early turnovers, the Colts could be in trouble. But it is the Ravens running game that is so dangerous. Manning can't throw touchdown passes from the bench. The Ravens did not run extremely well against the Colts in the regular season, but I guarantee the Colts defense will see a lot of Ray Rice if the Ravens go up 14-0 like last week.
Surprisingly, the Ravens pass-rush did not sack Manning in the regular season match-up. That will have to change in the playoffs. At the very least, the Ravens defense will have to hit Manning and make him uncomfortable. With safety Ed Reed back in the line-up I think the Ravens can do it.
Don't let the seeding and records fool you. These two teams are not as far apart as they appear. This is not your father's NFL, when an 9-7 record was a monster difference from 14-2. Increased parody forces you to almost throw out the records in the playoffs.
Prediction No. 2: Giants Stadium will be preparing to host the AFC Championship, but the Chargers will have just enough to win a close game.
Yes, the AFC could send a No. 5 or 6 seed to the Super Bowl. The Chargers are a hot team and a popular pick to beat the Jets this weekend. But I wouldn't count out Rex Ryan, who has named his team the favorite to win the Super Bowl.
This game will come down to the quarterbacks. Mark Sanchez, a rookie, will keep the Jets in the game, but like Flacco last year, will make a mistake at the wrong time that will cost his team the game. Chargers QB Philip Rivers has enough playoff experience to not be a liability.
The Jets have upset the Chargers in the playoffs before, but I think they get their revenge this year. Ironically, it's on a late field goal.
Prediction No. 3: The Cowboys prove they are over-rated. The Vikings-Cowboys divisional playoff is a no-win situation for me. It pains me to pick either team, but I don't think the Cowboys can sustain their level of excellence. They are due for a clunker after winning four games in a row and the hostile Metrodome is a prime spot. The Vikings will be ready for this game and should not underestimate the Cowboys and their momentum.
Vikings quarterback Brett Favre will play well, but will let the Cowboys stay in the game with a turnover or two. The Vikings will ice it in the second half with a lot of Adrian Peterson and win it by 10.
Prediction No. 4: The Saints be the team that snaps out of the late-season funk.
The Cardinals' defense was shredded by the Packers, which should have the Saints licking their chops. Quarterback Drew Brees will have no problem finding his favorite receivers and scoring 35 points or more.
The Saints may have lost three straight to end the season, but the defense did not give up more than 24 points in any of them. If the Saints and Cardinals defenses hold to recent form, the Saints should have no problems and win by 14 or more.
The Jets and Ravens are being referred to as Cinderellas as they head to San Diego and Indianapolis this weekend, but I really don't see it that way. Both teams are hot and must be playing with a lot of confidence after beating division champs.
The Ravens proved once again the old adage that defense wins championships is true. They intimidated and flat-out manhandled the Patriots on Sunday. Early turnovers essentially ended the game, but the Ravens' running game was strong as well, keeping the Patriots offense off the field once the team regained its bearings.
I'm not discounting the Patriots had injury problems that hindered their offense. Who knows how a healthy Wes Welker would have changed the game plan. But none of the Patriots' offensive weapons were working in the first half. It was so bad the New England crowd began booing the team. Even if Welker was in the game, I'm not sure the Ravens' would have not won that game easily.
The Ravens now find themselves facing another team with a big offense this weekend. The Colts scored only 17 points at Baltimore in Week 11, but still won 17-15. The Ravens forced two Peyton Manning interceptions and recovered another fumble. Manning threw for 299 yards, but only one touchdown.
The Ravens were winning by a point in the fourth quarter, when they allowed a 25-yard field goal that ended up being the game-winner for the Colts. The game played out perfectly for the Ravens, but the offense could not get the job done late in the game when Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco threw an interception deep in Colts territory.
This leads me to Prediction No. 1 for the Divisional Playoffs: The Ravens are going to upset the Colts and return to the AFC Championship game.
The Colts have no momentum after taking three weeks off, which I think is a big problem. It will take a couple drives for the Colts offense to get into rhythm and if the Ravens again force early turnovers, the Colts could be in trouble. But it is the Ravens running game that is so dangerous. Manning can't throw touchdown passes from the bench. The Ravens did not run extremely well against the Colts in the regular season, but I guarantee the Colts defense will see a lot of Ray Rice if the Ravens go up 14-0 like last week.
Surprisingly, the Ravens pass-rush did not sack Manning in the regular season match-up. That will have to change in the playoffs. At the very least, the Ravens defense will have to hit Manning and make him uncomfortable. With safety Ed Reed back in the line-up I think the Ravens can do it.
Don't let the seeding and records fool you. These two teams are not as far apart as they appear. This is not your father's NFL, when an 9-7 record was a monster difference from 14-2. Increased parody forces you to almost throw out the records in the playoffs.
Prediction No. 2: Giants Stadium will be preparing to host the AFC Championship, but the Chargers will have just enough to win a close game.
Yes, the AFC could send a No. 5 or 6 seed to the Super Bowl. The Chargers are a hot team and a popular pick to beat the Jets this weekend. But I wouldn't count out Rex Ryan, who has named his team the favorite to win the Super Bowl.
This game will come down to the quarterbacks. Mark Sanchez, a rookie, will keep the Jets in the game, but like Flacco last year, will make a mistake at the wrong time that will cost his team the game. Chargers QB Philip Rivers has enough playoff experience to not be a liability.
The Jets have upset the Chargers in the playoffs before, but I think they get their revenge this year. Ironically, it's on a late field goal.
Prediction No. 3: The Cowboys prove they are over-rated. The Vikings-Cowboys divisional playoff is a no-win situation for me. It pains me to pick either team, but I don't think the Cowboys can sustain their level of excellence. They are due for a clunker after winning four games in a row and the hostile Metrodome is a prime spot. The Vikings will be ready for this game and should not underestimate the Cowboys and their momentum.
Vikings quarterback Brett Favre will play well, but will let the Cowboys stay in the game with a turnover or two. The Vikings will ice it in the second half with a lot of Adrian Peterson and win it by 10.
Prediction No. 4: The Saints be the team that snaps out of the late-season funk.
The Cardinals' defense was shredded by the Packers, which should have the Saints licking their chops. Quarterback Drew Brees will have no problem finding his favorite receivers and scoring 35 points or more.
The Saints may have lost three straight to end the season, but the defense did not give up more than 24 points in any of them. If the Saints and Cardinals defenses hold to recent form, the Saints should have no problems and win by 14 or more.
Thursday, January 7, 2010
Baseball's Global Series
Another international baseball event in the design stages I think is another great idea.
Japanese sports media reported Major League Baseball and Nippon Professional Baseball (the Japanese pro baseball league) are attempting to establish a series where the champions of both leagues play each other.
While MLB wanted to see its best players wear the uniforms of their countries and play a tournament to grow the game, this could prove to be a better event. It potentially could grow the game within the two countries where baseball is the most popular.
The main problem with the World Baseball Classic has been the unfamiliar site of the game's best players playing for their countries. Players with more than one heritage, like Alex Rodriguez or Mike Piazza, both of whom are heroes in America and spend most of their time living in America, ended up playing for foreign countries in the WBC. This proposal would pit two professional clubs against each other.
And unlike the WBC, which is staged in March during MLB's spring training, the Global World Series could be staged in the late fall. The World Series ends in late October, and the Japan Series is staged around the same time. Could the two leagues broker a deal to play a seven-game series around Thanksgiving?
This past year would have been the prime chance to inaugurate the series. The leagues' two most dominant franchises, the New York Yankees and Yomiuri Giants, both were champions in 2009. It was the Yankees' 27th title and the Giants' 21st. Imagine the two teams facing off to determine which dynasty was superior.
Alternating years could determine home-field advantage. If the U.S. had home-field in 2009, the Yankees could have played three games in Japan, presumably Tokyo, then fly back to a warm west-coast city like Los Angeles or Phoenix to play the final four games. One big story line would be the Japanese players attached to American teams heading home: How would Hideki Matsui play in his return to Japan to face-off against his former team -- he played for Yomiuri from 1994-2002?
If baseball were looking to add an event for a captive audience after Thanksgiving, this is the opportunity. NFL football on Thursday, followed by baseball on Friday, Saturday and/or Sunday.
A multi-country club championship already is staged in Asia between the champions of professional leagues of Japan, Korea, Taiwan and China. The Caribbean Series, already extremely popular in that area, involves winter league clubs in Puerto Rico, Venezuela, the Dominican Republic, and Mexico.
Regular readers of this blog know I am a proponent of the WBC (See here, here and here). That event is important to grow the game outside countries like the U.S. and Japan, where it is traditionally strong. This event is a reward for the two countries where baseball is a major sport. The two teams will not have to worry about getting in shape, pitch counts and injuries ruining seasons. There will be no concerns about building team chemistry. It will just be a series to determine who's better.
I love this idea because I like seeing how our favorite sports are played outside our borders. I hope the two sides can work out a deal.
Japanese sports media reported Major League Baseball and Nippon Professional Baseball (the Japanese pro baseball league) are attempting to establish a series where the champions of both leagues play each other.
While MLB wanted to see its best players wear the uniforms of their countries and play a tournament to grow the game, this could prove to be a better event. It potentially could grow the game within the two countries where baseball is the most popular.
The main problem with the World Baseball Classic has been the unfamiliar site of the game's best players playing for their countries. Players with more than one heritage, like Alex Rodriguez or Mike Piazza, both of whom are heroes in America and spend most of their time living in America, ended up playing for foreign countries in the WBC. This proposal would pit two professional clubs against each other.
And unlike the WBC, which is staged in March during MLB's spring training, the Global World Series could be staged in the late fall. The World Series ends in late October, and the Japan Series is staged around the same time. Could the two leagues broker a deal to play a seven-game series around Thanksgiving?
This past year would have been the prime chance to inaugurate the series. The leagues' two most dominant franchises, the New York Yankees and Yomiuri Giants, both were champions in 2009. It was the Yankees' 27th title and the Giants' 21st. Imagine the two teams facing off to determine which dynasty was superior.
Alternating years could determine home-field advantage. If the U.S. had home-field in 2009, the Yankees could have played three games in Japan, presumably Tokyo, then fly back to a warm west-coast city like Los Angeles or Phoenix to play the final four games. One big story line would be the Japanese players attached to American teams heading home: How would Hideki Matsui play in his return to Japan to face-off against his former team -- he played for Yomiuri from 1994-2002?
If baseball were looking to add an event for a captive audience after Thanksgiving, this is the opportunity. NFL football on Thursday, followed by baseball on Friday, Saturday and/or Sunday.
A multi-country club championship already is staged in Asia between the champions of professional leagues of Japan, Korea, Taiwan and China. The Caribbean Series, already extremely popular in that area, involves winter league clubs in Puerto Rico, Venezuela, the Dominican Republic, and Mexico.
Regular readers of this blog know I am a proponent of the WBC (See here, here and here). That event is important to grow the game outside countries like the U.S. and Japan, where it is traditionally strong. This event is a reward for the two countries where baseball is a major sport. The two teams will not have to worry about getting in shape, pitch counts and injuries ruining seasons. There will be no concerns about building team chemistry. It will just be a series to determine who's better.
I love this idea because I like seeing how our favorite sports are played outside our borders. I hope the two sides can work out a deal.
Monday, January 4, 2010
NFL Playoff predictions
This may not be the year to trust the No. 1 seeds in the NFL playoffs, especially in the AFC, where four of the six teams could win the Super Bowl. Here are a few of my thoughts and predictions on the AFC as Wildcard Weekend approaches:
- The Baltimore Ravens will surprise a lot of people, but that shouldn't surprise anyone.
The Ravens enter the playoffs with the necessary fundamentals to win January and February games: They run the ball and play tough defense. Ray Rice has emerged as a workhorse and Willis McGahee is consistently good. The Ravens face the Patriots, who will go without the perfect slot receiver, Wes Welker, and a banged up Tom Brady at quarterback.
This match-up has all the makings for an upset. The Ravens defense may not be as stingy as in the past, but the offense is picking up the slack. Joe Flacco is a much better quarterback than a year ago and if the running game is clicking, the Patriots won't spend much time on the field.
- I have no confidence in the Bengals.
Chad Ochocinco hurt himself in warm-ups Sunday, but is expected to play against the Jets this weekend. The Jets thoroughly waxed the Bengals on Sunday. The Bengals ended the season losing three out of four and did not beat a team with a winning record since winning over the Steelers in week 10. The Bengals are in because they started fast and destroyed all the teams in their division. They have not proven anything in the last month of the season.
- The 2010 playoffs are shaping up to strongly resemble the 2006 playoffs.
The Colts had a chance at perfection, only to lose late in the year and then rest all their starters. Sound familiar? In 2006, the Colts won 13 in a row, lost, then chose not to take the last three games seriously. The 6-seeded Steelers had had win their final four games to qualify for the post-season and entered scored the upset.
Hmm...The Colts started 14-0, only to lose late in the year and rest all their starters. They will open the playoffs Jan. 16, having not played a meaningful game in a month. Did they learn their lesson? It doesn't appear so.
- The Ravens could end up in the Super Bowl.
The similarities are striking: The Ravens are a lot better than their record indicates and the AFC has no dominant team in the playoffs this year. They have playoff experience, having come close to beating the Steelers in the AFC Championship last year (The Steelers in the 2006 playoffs lost in the AFC Championship the previous year). The No. 1 seed enters the playoffs rusty and will play a No. 6 seed that can play tough defense. I don't think it's unthinkable that the Ravens knock out the Patriots, then upset the Colts and head to San Diego for the AFC Championship. At that stage, the records don't matter.
This may be the year the Ravens get back over the hump.
Thursday, December 31, 2009
Defense leads to a big win
Defense wins championships and for the Hoosiers, it won their first conference game of the season. IU defeated Michigan 71-65 -- sealing the nip-and-tuck game with 10 seconds left.
Michigan was a poor shooting team coming into the game, but Indiana had one of its best defensive outings of the season. After the Wolverines started the game hot behind the 3-point line, coach Tom Crean extended his defensive pressure. It was a great move and changed the game in the first few minutes. Michigan shot 39 percent for the game and the Hoosiers had 10 steals, two blocks, and forced 12 turnovers. They also held star DeShawn Sims to 12 points and three rebounds and forced him to foul out of the game.
The Hoosiers did not have any extended scoring droughts in this game as in previous losses. And they used their defensive pressure to create easy shots. The team played like they should win the game. They competed the entire 40 minutes.
Christian Watford also stepped into a role as primary offensive option with 19 points. Verdell Jones scored 20 and Jeremiah Rivers came up with some huge plays late in the game, including a double-pump three-point play.
Michigan seemed beaten as the second half wound down, but made some big shots late to get back in the game. The Hoosiers carved out a 4-point lead with 40 seconds left, but Michigan kept fighting, scoring a couple layups to keep it a one-possession game. The Wolverines immediately fouled each time and the Hoosiers made the free throws when they had to. Freshman Jordan Hulls made four big ones with less than 10 seconds left to end it.
This is a big win for the IU program. It gives the young team some confidence and, hopefully, gives Crean a clearer formula for success.
By the way, did you ever think IU fans could say this in 2010: Indiana is tied for first in the Big Ten.
Next up: at Ohio State, Jan. 6.
Michigan was a poor shooting team coming into the game, but Indiana had one of its best defensive outings of the season. After the Wolverines started the game hot behind the 3-point line, coach Tom Crean extended his defensive pressure. It was a great move and changed the game in the first few minutes. Michigan shot 39 percent for the game and the Hoosiers had 10 steals, two blocks, and forced 12 turnovers. They also held star DeShawn Sims to 12 points and three rebounds and forced him to foul out of the game.
The Hoosiers did not have any extended scoring droughts in this game as in previous losses. And they used their defensive pressure to create easy shots. The team played like they should win the game. They competed the entire 40 minutes.
Christian Watford also stepped into a role as primary offensive option with 19 points. Verdell Jones scored 20 and Jeremiah Rivers came up with some huge plays late in the game, including a double-pump three-point play.
Michigan seemed beaten as the second half wound down, but made some big shots late to get back in the game. The Hoosiers carved out a 4-point lead with 40 seconds left, but Michigan kept fighting, scoring a couple layups to keep it a one-possession game. The Wolverines immediately fouled each time and the Hoosiers made the free throws when they had to. Freshman Jordan Hulls made four big ones with less than 10 seconds left to end it.
This is a big win for the IU program. It gives the young team some confidence and, hopefully, gives Crean a clearer formula for success.
By the way, did you ever think IU fans could say this in 2010: Indiana is tied for first in the Big Ten.
Next up: at Ohio State, Jan. 6.
Time for Big Ten play
I'm a little nervous this morning as I wait for the noon tip off between Indiana and Michigan.
At times this season, the baby Hoosiers have appeared ready to take that next step in the rebuilding process. The team got its biggest win in the last two years on the game's biggest regular-season stage this month -- over Pittsburgh -- only later to play an absolute clunker first half against Loyola of Maryland and more resemble last season's team. The Hoosiers came back from 20 points down to take the lead late in that game, but could not finish.
Now they face another hurdle: the loss of Maurice Creek, the team's leading scorer through 12 games. Which team will emerge? I'm hoping the high effort this team is known produces positive results, because once again it's going to take a near perfect performance for this team to win. They are unlikely to recover from long scoring droughts or poor shooting halves against Michigan State, Ohio State and Purdue.
The Hoosiers are 6-6, equaling the win total from last year. Ideally, the record would have been 8-4. I don't think anyone expected the team to lose all three games in Puerto Rico and Loyola showed in the second half they were not as unbeatable as they appeared. Still, Crean seems to be making progress. I think moving beyond 10 or 12 wins certainly should be a goal. The Hoosiers should get three or more of those wins in Bloomington. Could this team approach .500 by the end of the season?
Enjoy the game. It's on ESPN2.
At times this season, the baby Hoosiers have appeared ready to take that next step in the rebuilding process. The team got its biggest win in the last two years on the game's biggest regular-season stage this month -- over Pittsburgh -- only later to play an absolute clunker first half against Loyola of Maryland and more resemble last season's team. The Hoosiers came back from 20 points down to take the lead late in that game, but could not finish.
Now they face another hurdle: the loss of Maurice Creek, the team's leading scorer through 12 games. Which team will emerge? I'm hoping the high effort this team is known produces positive results, because once again it's going to take a near perfect performance for this team to win. They are unlikely to recover from long scoring droughts or poor shooting halves against Michigan State, Ohio State and Purdue.
The Hoosiers are 6-6, equaling the win total from last year. Ideally, the record would have been 8-4. I don't think anyone expected the team to lose all three games in Puerto Rico and Loyola showed in the second half they were not as unbeatable as they appeared. Still, Crean seems to be making progress. I think moving beyond 10 or 12 wins certainly should be a goal. The Hoosiers should get three or more of those wins in Bloomington. Could this team approach .500 by the end of the season?
Enjoy the game. It's on ESPN2.
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
The Illinois Hoosier National Championship
Welcome to the national championship game. We're at the Orange Bowl in Miami for the finals of the 8-team Illinois Hoosier college football playoff. Florida, the 8 seed, faces Oregon, the 4 seed.
The Gators reached the finals by upsetting Alabama in the quarterfinals and TCU in the semifinal round. It is not a complete surprise the lowest-seeded team reached the finals. Florida was undefeated and ranked No. 1 the entire season, until Alabama pulled the upset to gain the No. 1 seed in the tournament.
Oregon may be somewhat of a surprise in the finals, but in reality the Ducks are a product of the draw. Oregon beat Ohio State at first round, then Cincinnati in the semifinals. Both teams were not considered real championship contenders.
Florida has to enter the game as the favorite, given its two huge wins since losing the SEC Championship and the location of the game. But don't discount Oregon's chances. The Ducks knocked off USC, Utah, California and Oregon State, all of which are ranked. They also score an average of nearly 38 points per game.
Unfortunately, Florida has nearly as powerful an offense, averaging more than 34 points per game. The Gators also have a defense that can win games by itself. They give up less than 12 points per game. The Oregon defense allows nearly 24 points per game.
Defense is the difference in this game. The two teams play to a 14-14 tie in the first half, but Florida makes an adjustment at halftime and in the third quarter, Oregon has trouble moving the ball. The Ducks can manage only 35 yards of total offense in the third quarter and two first downs. Meanwhile, Florida quarterback Tim Tebow takes over, throwing for a touchdown and rushing for another in the period.
Florida tries to sit on the lead in the fourth quarter, but Oregon makes it interesting. Jeremiah Masoli throws a 55-yard touchdown after a Florida defender falls down in coverage to cut the lead to seven, then leads the Ducks on another long drive that results in a field goal.
The Gators' lead 28-24 with 5 minutes to go. Oregon pulls out all the stops on defense and gets the ball back with 2 minutes left. Masoli gets the team across midfield with 10 seconds to go, but the hail Mary pass falls incomplete.
Florida wins its fourth national championship since 1996 and Tebow graduates among the most decorated college football players ever. TV ratings are off the charts, beating the best figures for any BCS championship game. There is talk in the future it could rival the Super Bowl in popularity and viewership.
The revenue generated by the tournament is unprecedented in college football. And bowl committees find the traditional bowl games, many of which were still played, still drew more than enough fans. There is general agreement the new idea was a success and college presidents begin to talk about whether the playoff can be expanded to 16 teams.
The Gators reached the finals by upsetting Alabama in the quarterfinals and TCU in the semifinal round. It is not a complete surprise the lowest-seeded team reached the finals. Florida was undefeated and ranked No. 1 the entire season, until Alabama pulled the upset to gain the No. 1 seed in the tournament.
Oregon may be somewhat of a surprise in the finals, but in reality the Ducks are a product of the draw. Oregon beat Ohio State at first round, then Cincinnati in the semifinals. Both teams were not considered real championship contenders.
Florida has to enter the game as the favorite, given its two huge wins since losing the SEC Championship and the location of the game. But don't discount Oregon's chances. The Ducks knocked off USC, Utah, California and Oregon State, all of which are ranked. They also score an average of nearly 38 points per game.
Unfortunately, Florida has nearly as powerful an offense, averaging more than 34 points per game. The Gators also have a defense that can win games by itself. They give up less than 12 points per game. The Oregon defense allows nearly 24 points per game.
Defense is the difference in this game. The two teams play to a 14-14 tie in the first half, but Florida makes an adjustment at halftime and in the third quarter, Oregon has trouble moving the ball. The Ducks can manage only 35 yards of total offense in the third quarter and two first downs. Meanwhile, Florida quarterback Tim Tebow takes over, throwing for a touchdown and rushing for another in the period.
Florida tries to sit on the lead in the fourth quarter, but Oregon makes it interesting. Jeremiah Masoli throws a 55-yard touchdown after a Florida defender falls down in coverage to cut the lead to seven, then leads the Ducks on another long drive that results in a field goal.
The Gators' lead 28-24 with 5 minutes to go. Oregon pulls out all the stops on defense and gets the ball back with 2 minutes left. Masoli gets the team across midfield with 10 seconds to go, but the hail Mary pass falls incomplete.
Florida wins its fourth national championship since 1996 and Tebow graduates among the most decorated college football players ever. TV ratings are off the charts, beating the best figures for any BCS championship game. There is talk in the future it could rival the Super Bowl in popularity and viewership.
The revenue generated by the tournament is unprecedented in college football. And bowl committees find the traditional bowl games, many of which were still played, still drew more than enough fans. There is general agreement the new idea was a success and college presidents begin to talk about whether the playoff can be expanded to 16 teams.
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
Let the College Football Playoff begin
The only way major college football will ever move to a playoff is to continue applying pressure. If enough fans and others demand it, the powers that be may change their minds. It is with that objective that I present 2009 Illinois Hoosier National Championship.
My rules are simple:
1. The big six conference champions automatically qualify: Alabama (SEC), Texas (Big 12), Ohio State (Big Ten), Oregon (Pac 10), Cincinnati (Big East), and Georgia Tech (ACC).
2. Two "wild card" teams complete the eight-team bracket. They are the two highest-ranked teams in the Bowl Championship Series rankings without an automatic bid. This year, those two teams are: TCU (No. 4) and Florida (No. 5). Boise State, which completed another undefeated season, is edged out.
3. All eight teams are seeded based on BCS rankings, but conference champions will be seeded higher than wild cards. Alabama is the top seed, followed by Texas, Cincinnati, Oregon, Ohio State, Georgia Tech, TCU, and Florida.
4. Quarterfinal games are played at the higher seeds' home field. The semifinals and finals are played at BCS bowl stadiums. The Rose Bowl continues to insist on the Big Ten-Pac 10 match-up on New Year's Day, but once every four years it will host the national championship game.
Quarterfinals
1. Florida at Alabama: Can you imagine the hype around this game? Florida gets a second chance to beat the Crimson Tide after a thumping in the SEC Championship game. This time the game is not on a neutral field, however, which should give the Tide some advantage.
Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram of Alabama has another big game, rushing for 110 yards and a touchdown, but Florida quarterback Tim Tebow does not turn the ball over this time. He throws for 250 yards and a TD again, but also rushes for a TD. The Gators pull the upset with a late field goal, 31-28.
2. TCU at Texas: Wow! Another huge match-up. The Longhorns are looking to prove their clunker in the Big 12 Championship was a fluke, while TCU is looking to prove they deserve to be among the elite teams. Oh, and by the way, the game is between two teams in the state of Texas.
Texas has holes in its game and TCU exposes them in this game. The Horned Frogs score a late touchdown to win it 24-21.
3. Georgia Tech at Cincinnati: This game carries a bunch of questions. How will Cincinnati respond to the departure of its coach to Notre Dame? Can the Bearcats' defense handle the triple-option offense? Is Georgia Tech, the lowest-ranked team in the tournament, a deserving participant over Boise State?
The game is played on a snowy December day in southern Ohio. As with their game against Pittsburgh, the Bearcats struggle early and by halftime the team is trailing by two touchdowns. But the team rallies, taking the lead in the fourth quarter. Georgia Tech is stopped inside the Cincinnati 20 on its final drive, securing the win. Cincinnati escapes, 34-28.
4. Ohio State at Oregon: This would have been the traditional Rose Bowl game. Instead the Buckeyes travel to Eugene, Ore. It is a match-up of two big-time quarterbacks, Terrelle Pryor and Jeremiah Masoli. The Ducks speed and spread offense was too much for USC and is too much for Ohio State, too. The crowd also hands Oregon a touchdown. OSU falls 35-17.
Semifinals
1. Florida v. TCU at the Sugar Bowl: There is no true home field advantage in this game, because it is close to both schools. TCU is flying high after its upset of Texas, but Florida is a different animal. The Gators don't suffer the same let-down and pound TCU 28-10. Florida scores on its first two possessions and does not allow a touchdown in the first half. TCU scores its only TD late in the fourth quarter after it has been decided.
2. Cincinnati v. Oregon at the Fiesta Bowl: Cincinnati is another newbie to the big stage, but in a way so is Oregon. Both teams find themselves playing for a chance to reach the biggest of stages. The Bearcats already find themselves in the biggest game in school history, while Oregon has played in Rose Bowls before.
Without the coach that got them there, Cincinnati was playing with house money. This game it is time to pay up. Oregon wins, but never takes full control of the game. Final score: 31-21.
That sets up the national championship game, to be played at the Orange Bowl in Miami. Florida will face Oregon the first week of the new year. The game will come a few days after the other bowl games.
Who will be my national champion? Stay tuned...
By the way, here is a link to my 2007 Illinois Hoosier National Championship.
My rules are simple:
1. The big six conference champions automatically qualify: Alabama (SEC), Texas (Big 12), Ohio State (Big Ten), Oregon (Pac 10), Cincinnati (Big East), and Georgia Tech (ACC).
2. Two "wild card" teams complete the eight-team bracket. They are the two highest-ranked teams in the Bowl Championship Series rankings without an automatic bid. This year, those two teams are: TCU (No. 4) and Florida (No. 5). Boise State, which completed another undefeated season, is edged out.
3. All eight teams are seeded based on BCS rankings, but conference champions will be seeded higher than wild cards. Alabama is the top seed, followed by Texas, Cincinnati, Oregon, Ohio State, Georgia Tech, TCU, and Florida.
4. Quarterfinal games are played at the higher seeds' home field. The semifinals and finals are played at BCS bowl stadiums. The Rose Bowl continues to insist on the Big Ten-Pac 10 match-up on New Year's Day, but once every four years it will host the national championship game.
Quarterfinals
1. Florida at Alabama: Can you imagine the hype around this game? Florida gets a second chance to beat the Crimson Tide after a thumping in the SEC Championship game. This time the game is not on a neutral field, however, which should give the Tide some advantage.
Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram of Alabama has another big game, rushing for 110 yards and a touchdown, but Florida quarterback Tim Tebow does not turn the ball over this time. He throws for 250 yards and a TD again, but also rushes for a TD. The Gators pull the upset with a late field goal, 31-28.
2. TCU at Texas: Wow! Another huge match-up. The Longhorns are looking to prove their clunker in the Big 12 Championship was a fluke, while TCU is looking to prove they deserve to be among the elite teams. Oh, and by the way, the game is between two teams in the state of Texas.
Texas has holes in its game and TCU exposes them in this game. The Horned Frogs score a late touchdown to win it 24-21.
3. Georgia Tech at Cincinnati: This game carries a bunch of questions. How will Cincinnati respond to the departure of its coach to Notre Dame? Can the Bearcats' defense handle the triple-option offense? Is Georgia Tech, the lowest-ranked team in the tournament, a deserving participant over Boise State?
The game is played on a snowy December day in southern Ohio. As with their game against Pittsburgh, the Bearcats struggle early and by halftime the team is trailing by two touchdowns. But the team rallies, taking the lead in the fourth quarter. Georgia Tech is stopped inside the Cincinnati 20 on its final drive, securing the win. Cincinnati escapes, 34-28.
4. Ohio State at Oregon: This would have been the traditional Rose Bowl game. Instead the Buckeyes travel to Eugene, Ore. It is a match-up of two big-time quarterbacks, Terrelle Pryor and Jeremiah Masoli. The Ducks speed and spread offense was too much for USC and is too much for Ohio State, too. The crowd also hands Oregon a touchdown. OSU falls 35-17.
Semifinals
1. Florida v. TCU at the Sugar Bowl: There is no true home field advantage in this game, because it is close to both schools. TCU is flying high after its upset of Texas, but Florida is a different animal. The Gators don't suffer the same let-down and pound TCU 28-10. Florida scores on its first two possessions and does not allow a touchdown in the first half. TCU scores its only TD late in the fourth quarter after it has been decided.
2. Cincinnati v. Oregon at the Fiesta Bowl: Cincinnati is another newbie to the big stage, but in a way so is Oregon. Both teams find themselves playing for a chance to reach the biggest of stages. The Bearcats already find themselves in the biggest game in school history, while Oregon has played in Rose Bowls before.
Without the coach that got them there, Cincinnati was playing with house money. This game it is time to pay up. Oregon wins, but never takes full control of the game. Final score: 31-21.
That sets up the national championship game, to be played at the Orange Bowl in Miami. Florida will face Oregon the first week of the new year. The game will come a few days after the other bowl games.
Who will be my national champion? Stay tuned...
By the way, here is a link to my 2007 Illinois Hoosier National Championship.
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Big Ten Expansion: Great idea, but who to take?
I don't think there's any doubt out there that the Big Ten needs a 12th school. The most obvious reason is for football, but it will benefit the other sports as well.
If we only consider football, a Big Ten with 12 teams will allow for two divisions and a championship game, extending the season into December and creating more media buzz during the final push for the national championship. The question now is which school should be the 12th team?
Speculation is all over the place, but there are some common names: Pitt, Cincinnati and Missouri have been mentioned many times. I think Pitt and Missouri are strong candidates, if they are interested. Missouri would have to be convinced to leave the Big 12 conference, where it has played second fiddle to Texas, Oklahoma and Nebraska in football for years. There's no guarantee the Tigers will quickly rise into the upper division in the Big Ten, but athletic department officials may be willing to consider a change.
Cincinnati is not as strong a candidate. The Bearcats just joined the Big East four years ago and I don't think they would be ready to switch affiliations again. And with the moving of coach Brian Kelly to Notre Dame, the quality of their football team has become suspect.
Cincinnati as an institution also does not fit the profile of the Big Ten. Conference officials may say that's not a factor, I think it will be a consideration if it comes to a vote. Both Pitt and Cincinnati are city schools, but Pitt has a long tradition as a research center, with one of the most prestigious medical schools in the world. No disrespect to Cincinnati, but the school does not have that reputation.
Syracuse or Rutgers would be interesting choices because they would extend the conference's reach to the east coast. But they could find opposition from the western schools like Minnesota and Iowa because of the travel issue. It may not pose a problem for football, but non-revenue-driving sports like field hockey and wrestling would have either long bus trips or expensive plane rides to matches on those campuses.
Iowa State is a possibility, but I'm not sure the Big Ten would want to expand in a state where they already have a presence. Granted, there already is a Big Ten presence in Pennsylvania, but Pitt and Penn State are on different parts of a large state and are in different geographic regions of the country. Pittsburgh is a more Midwestern city, while State College, Pa. is likely more split between the Midwest and east coast ties. Iowa is solidly Midwestern.
Nebraska will not leave the Big 12 and the rivalry with Oklahoma. Kansas or Kansas State may be interested and would be bring football and basketball power to the conference, but will those schools give up their rivalry game?
My money would be on Missouri or Pitt, assuming the conference decides expansion is a good idea and the schools are interested.
The divisions for football would fall into place relatively easily with either school. Missouri would join the Big Ten West along with Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois and Northwestern. The Big Ten East would include Indiana, Purdue, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State and Penn State.
If Pitt is selected, the Big Ten East also would include Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State and Northwestern. Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa would compose the Big Ten West.
If we only consider football, a Big Ten with 12 teams will allow for two divisions and a championship game, extending the season into December and creating more media buzz during the final push for the national championship. The question now is which school should be the 12th team?
Speculation is all over the place, but there are some common names: Pitt, Cincinnati and Missouri have been mentioned many times. I think Pitt and Missouri are strong candidates, if they are interested. Missouri would have to be convinced to leave the Big 12 conference, where it has played second fiddle to Texas, Oklahoma and Nebraska in football for years. There's no guarantee the Tigers will quickly rise into the upper division in the Big Ten, but athletic department officials may be willing to consider a change.
Cincinnati is not as strong a candidate. The Bearcats just joined the Big East four years ago and I don't think they would be ready to switch affiliations again. And with the moving of coach Brian Kelly to Notre Dame, the quality of their football team has become suspect.
Cincinnati as an institution also does not fit the profile of the Big Ten. Conference officials may say that's not a factor, I think it will be a consideration if it comes to a vote. Both Pitt and Cincinnati are city schools, but Pitt has a long tradition as a research center, with one of the most prestigious medical schools in the world. No disrespect to Cincinnati, but the school does not have that reputation.
Syracuse or Rutgers would be interesting choices because they would extend the conference's reach to the east coast. But they could find opposition from the western schools like Minnesota and Iowa because of the travel issue. It may not pose a problem for football, but non-revenue-driving sports like field hockey and wrestling would have either long bus trips or expensive plane rides to matches on those campuses.
Iowa State is a possibility, but I'm not sure the Big Ten would want to expand in a state where they already have a presence. Granted, there already is a Big Ten presence in Pennsylvania, but Pitt and Penn State are on different parts of a large state and are in different geographic regions of the country. Pittsburgh is a more Midwestern city, while State College, Pa. is likely more split between the Midwest and east coast ties. Iowa is solidly Midwestern.
Nebraska will not leave the Big 12 and the rivalry with Oklahoma. Kansas or Kansas State may be interested and would be bring football and basketball power to the conference, but will those schools give up their rivalry game?
My money would be on Missouri or Pitt, assuming the conference decides expansion is a good idea and the schools are interested.
The divisions for football would fall into place relatively easily with either school. Missouri would join the Big Ten West along with Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois and Northwestern. The Big Ten East would include Indiana, Purdue, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State and Penn State.
If Pitt is selected, the Big Ten East also would include Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State and Northwestern. Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa would compose the Big Ten West.
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Who's the best BCS National Champion
Monday, December 14, 2009
IU-UK: A look to the future
The Hoosiers took it on the chin in the second half against Kentucky on Saturday. Indiana was outscored 48-32 and allowed a 18-0 run early in the final period that sealed their fate.
After the win over Pitt earlier in the week, I was a little optimistic the Hoosiers would play better against the No. 4 Wildcats. But as the game unfolded, I realized the huge gap IU will have to bridge to become a national championship contender once again. It's not scoring, it's defense and rebounding.
The Wildcats destroyed the much smaller Hoosiers on the boards. All five players on the floor were crashing the boards. UK grabbed 49 rebounds, more than double IU's 24. Their 21 offensive rebounds led to 30 second-chance points. It's a tough stat to consider given IU lost by 17. If half of those second chance points are converted to IU defensive rebounds, the Hoosiers have a chance to win late.
The Hoosiers have some size, but it was nowhere near enough to defend Kentucky. The Wildcats were getting rebounds off missed free throws and three-pointers. Even when there were four IU players under the basket, it seemed Kentucky's players came up with the ball.
This type of play is what I hope coach Tom Crean is building toward. It is the kind of play that typifies Michigan State basketball, which has dominated the Big Ten over the last decade. It's also the type of play that wins games in March and early April. The more chances the Hoosiers can generate for themselves, the more likely they are to win. And on the defensive side, the team that holds its opponent to one shot per possession has the advantage.
I think these Hoosiers can get there after watching this game. They had Kentucky on its heals in the first half, shooting 63 percent, and even though they were down 20 in the second half, the team made a couple runs to get within 12 and try to get back in the game.
Crean had his team playing with confidence, unafraid of the highly-ranked Wildcats. The fact that it took Kentucky more than an entire half to gain control of the game is impressive, given their size advantage.
The Hoosiers also won the turnover battle, but only had one player score more than 10 points. The Wildcats had five players in double figures.
Crean has a long way to go, but it is clear he is making progress. On Saturday I saw the players beginning to play like they belong. They played like they legitimately could beat Kentucky, something we didn't see at all last year. The trick will be for Crean to keep the team's energy level up through the Christmas season and into conference play.
After the win over Pitt earlier in the week, I was a little optimistic the Hoosiers would play better against the No. 4 Wildcats. But as the game unfolded, I realized the huge gap IU will have to bridge to become a national championship contender once again. It's not scoring, it's defense and rebounding.
The Wildcats destroyed the much smaller Hoosiers on the boards. All five players on the floor were crashing the boards. UK grabbed 49 rebounds, more than double IU's 24. Their 21 offensive rebounds led to 30 second-chance points. It's a tough stat to consider given IU lost by 17. If half of those second chance points are converted to IU defensive rebounds, the Hoosiers have a chance to win late.
The Hoosiers have some size, but it was nowhere near enough to defend Kentucky. The Wildcats were getting rebounds off missed free throws and three-pointers. Even when there were four IU players under the basket, it seemed Kentucky's players came up with the ball.
This type of play is what I hope coach Tom Crean is building toward. It is the kind of play that typifies Michigan State basketball, which has dominated the Big Ten over the last decade. It's also the type of play that wins games in March and early April. The more chances the Hoosiers can generate for themselves, the more likely they are to win. And on the defensive side, the team that holds its opponent to one shot per possession has the advantage.
I think these Hoosiers can get there after watching this game. They had Kentucky on its heals in the first half, shooting 63 percent, and even though they were down 20 in the second half, the team made a couple runs to get within 12 and try to get back in the game.
Crean had his team playing with confidence, unafraid of the highly-ranked Wildcats. The fact that it took Kentucky more than an entire half to gain control of the game is impressive, given their size advantage.
The Hoosiers also won the turnover battle, but only had one player score more than 10 points. The Wildcats had five players in double figures.
Crean has a long way to go, but it is clear he is making progress. On Saturday I saw the players beginning to play like they belong. They played like they legitimately could beat Kentucky, something we didn't see at all last year. The trick will be for Crean to keep the team's energy level up through the Christmas season and into conference play.
Saturday, November 14, 2009
Reflections on the IU opener
I'm watching the Hoosiers football team take on Penn State (the Hoosiers are up 10-0 early), but I'm more excited to talk about the IU basketball team.
Tom Crean's "Baby Hoosiers" beat Howard convincingly on Friday, 83-60. The game was close early, but IU made a run late in the first half and led by 17 at the break. While it's difficult to really determine how good this team will be, there are signs it could be special.
Christian Watford, the highly-touted freshman forward, has a lot of potential. He is a little lanky and probably will struggle against teams like Michigan State and Purdue, but I like his athleticism and his speed. He reminds me a little of Jared Jefferies. Last night he scored 14 points and grabbed 11 rebounds. Not bad for playing only 24 minutes.
Last year, IU's post play was lacking and it showed. It already appears much improved. Freshman Derek Elston also played well underneath as did sophomore Tom Pritchard.
I really liked junior Jeremiah Rivers at point guard. He brings a lot of speed to the game that the Hoosiers did not have last year and was looking to distribute the ball all night. He also made a spectacular reverse layup that wowed the crowd.
Crean appeared to be using the game to help determine his regular starting lineup and did not play anyone longer than 26 minutes. I think Watford, Pritchard, and Rivers played like starters. The other two guard spots should rotate between Devan Dumes, Verdell Jones, Maurice Creek.
I know they are only freshmen, but I think Crean could end up starting three or four freshmen going forward this season. I could definitely see Elston and Creek starting a few games this year, and both should see a lot of playing time.
As you might expect, the Hoosiers need to improve their rebounding. They only got two more boards than Howard last night. To complete in the Big Ten, that stat will have to improve. The Hoosiers also had 16 turnovers, which can't happen against better teams.
Overall, this team already appears much improved from last year. If they continue improving throughout the year, IU will scare a lot of opponents.
Tom Crean's "Baby Hoosiers" beat Howard convincingly on Friday, 83-60. The game was close early, but IU made a run late in the first half and led by 17 at the break. While it's difficult to really determine how good this team will be, there are signs it could be special.
Christian Watford, the highly-touted freshman forward, has a lot of potential. He is a little lanky and probably will struggle against teams like Michigan State and Purdue, but I like his athleticism and his speed. He reminds me a little of Jared Jefferies. Last night he scored 14 points and grabbed 11 rebounds. Not bad for playing only 24 minutes.
Last year, IU's post play was lacking and it showed. It already appears much improved. Freshman Derek Elston also played well underneath as did sophomore Tom Pritchard.
I really liked junior Jeremiah Rivers at point guard. He brings a lot of speed to the game that the Hoosiers did not have last year and was looking to distribute the ball all night. He also made a spectacular reverse layup that wowed the crowd.
Crean appeared to be using the game to help determine his regular starting lineup and did not play anyone longer than 26 minutes. I think Watford, Pritchard, and Rivers played like starters. The other two guard spots should rotate between Devan Dumes, Verdell Jones, Maurice Creek.
I know they are only freshmen, but I think Crean could end up starting three or four freshmen going forward this season. I could definitely see Elston and Creek starting a few games this year, and both should see a lot of playing time.
As you might expect, the Hoosiers need to improve their rebounding. They only got two more boards than Howard last night. To complete in the Big Ten, that stat will have to improve. The Hoosiers also had 16 turnovers, which can't happen against better teams.
Overall, this team already appears much improved from last year. If they continue improving throughout the year, IU will scare a lot of opponents.
Saturday, November 7, 2009
Hall of Fame weekend in Bloomington
The Hoosiers honored Bob Knight, Jerry Yeagley and the rest of the IU Hall of Fame class of 2009 last night. Knight was not there. The more pressing business now is the football game against Wisconsin this afternoon.
Indianapolis Star IU writer Terry Hutchens wrote about IU's second half offensive struggles this week. I'm glad someone finally asked that question. I had been waiting all season for an answer.
The Badgers present a different problem for the IU defense. Wisconsin runs first and often. They average nearly 195 yards rushing per game, less than four yards per game than they average passing. This comes after spending the last two weeks dealing with pass-happy Northwestern and Iowa, which won the game on two big pass plays.
The more conservative Badger attack likely will equate to long drives, leaving the IU defense on the field for huge chunks at a time. It also means the Hoosiers' offense will be on the bench for long periods, unable to score.
The key to this game will be the IU defense's ability to force three-and-outs to stay in the game. Unfortunately, this sets up for a second half collapse. IU's defensive players will no doubt wear down late, letting Wisconsin have those long drives for touchdowns.
IU has had Wisconsin's number in recent games in Bloomington. I think the Hoosiers keep it close and may even have the lead at halftime, but can't sustain it late. It's another 30-minute victory. Wisconsin wins 24-13.
Indianapolis Star IU writer Terry Hutchens wrote about IU's second half offensive struggles this week. I'm glad someone finally asked that question. I had been waiting all season for an answer.
The Badgers present a different problem for the IU defense. Wisconsin runs first and often. They average nearly 195 yards rushing per game, less than four yards per game than they average passing. This comes after spending the last two weeks dealing with pass-happy Northwestern and Iowa, which won the game on two big pass plays.
The more conservative Badger attack likely will equate to long drives, leaving the IU defense on the field for huge chunks at a time. It also means the Hoosiers' offense will be on the bench for long periods, unable to score.
The key to this game will be the IU defense's ability to force three-and-outs to stay in the game. Unfortunately, this sets up for a second half collapse. IU's defensive players will no doubt wear down late, letting Wisconsin have those long drives for touchdowns.
IU has had Wisconsin's number in recent games in Bloomington. I think the Hoosiers keep it close and may even have the lead at halftime, but can't sustain it late. It's another 30-minute victory. Wisconsin wins 24-13.
Saturday, October 31, 2009
Oh my
I am speechless...
I didn't think it could get worse than last week's loss to Northwestern. Before that I didn't think it could get any worse than the loss to Virgina. And before that I didn't it could get worse than the loss to Michigan.
But apparently it can get worse.
Despite forcing six turnovers, the Hoosiers blew a 10 point lead in the fourth quarter and lost to Iowa 42-24. The IU defense got four turnovers in the third quarter. Yet, they still allowed the Hawkeyes to score two touchdowns on one-play drives in the fourth. It was part of a collapse that included giving up 28 unanswered points in the quarter.
Bill Lynch received the support of Athletic Director Fred Glass earlier this week, with Glass saying he would honor the remainder of Lynch's contract. But I still feel he has to be on the hot seat, at least with the fans an alumni.
This wasn't a last-second loss. This wasn't a loss because of a tough call on the road. This was a flat-out collapse. A big-time choke. It was as if the switch was flipped when the fourth quarter started and IU said it was time to blow it. The final score doesn't even indicate that Iowa trailed for more than three quarters. The Hoosiers were outscored 35-3 in the second half.
I am just a fan and I don't much about football. But I can't see how there is any reason this should have happened. This game was shaping up as the greatest IU football win in more than 40 years. Instead it's just another embarrassing loss. Are the Hoosiers just the most unlucky college football team ever? There's no way Iowa is that lucky.
As I said, I am speechless.
I didn't think it could get worse than last week's loss to Northwestern. Before that I didn't think it could get any worse than the loss to Virgina. And before that I didn't it could get worse than the loss to Michigan.
But apparently it can get worse.
Despite forcing six turnovers, the Hoosiers blew a 10 point lead in the fourth quarter and lost to Iowa 42-24. The IU defense got four turnovers in the third quarter. Yet, they still allowed the Hawkeyes to score two touchdowns on one-play drives in the fourth. It was part of a collapse that included giving up 28 unanswered points in the quarter.
Bill Lynch received the support of Athletic Director Fred Glass earlier this week, with Glass saying he would honor the remainder of Lynch's contract. But I still feel he has to be on the hot seat, at least with the fans an alumni.
This wasn't a last-second loss. This wasn't a loss because of a tough call on the road. This was a flat-out collapse. A big-time choke. It was as if the switch was flipped when the fourth quarter started and IU said it was time to blow it. The final score doesn't even indicate that Iowa trailed for more than three quarters. The Hoosiers were outscored 35-3 in the second half.
I am just a fan and I don't much about football. But I can't see how there is any reason this should have happened. This game was shaping up as the greatest IU football win in more than 40 years. Instead it's just another embarrassing loss. Are the Hoosiers just the most unlucky college football team ever? There's no way Iowa is that lucky.
As I said, I am speechless.
Are you read for a beat down?
It's hard to get excited about IU's noon kick-off today at No. 4 Iowa. The Hawkeyes are undefeated and looking to continue a run to the Rose Bowl or National Championship. Meanwhile, the Hoosiers are in the midst of their (now traditional) conference season slide.
Iowa is a 17 1/2-point favorite. The only real question is whether the team will be completely focused after the literally last-second win at Michigan State last week. Next week Iowa plays Northwestern and then on Nov. 14 travels to Columbus, Ohio for the unofficial Big Ten title game.
Are the Hawkeyes going to be looking ahead this week? Probably not. The Hawkeyes are a little banged up -- they're without leading rusher Adam Robinson and will be starting some freshman at key positions. But head coach Kirk Ferentz is among the best coaches in the country. He will have his team ready.
The key to this game will be defense. Iowa allows less than 15 points per game, while the Hoosiers allow more than 26. If the Hoosiers can put Iowa quarterback Ricky Stanzi on the ground and keep the running game under control, they may be able to hang around.
But IU's offense will have to score points in both halves if they want to pull the upset. Scoring 21 points in the first quarter and expecting the defense to hold the lead the rest of the game is not going to cut it. It certainly didn't work last week.
I think the Hoosier defense plays well, but the offense never gets on track. Iowa wins 17-3.
By the way, I'll be updating on Twitter, at least until the game gets out of control.
Iowa is a 17 1/2-point favorite. The only real question is whether the team will be completely focused after the literally last-second win at Michigan State last week. Next week Iowa plays Northwestern and then on Nov. 14 travels to Columbus, Ohio for the unofficial Big Ten title game.
Are the Hawkeyes going to be looking ahead this week? Probably not. The Hawkeyes are a little banged up -- they're without leading rusher Adam Robinson and will be starting some freshman at key positions. But head coach Kirk Ferentz is among the best coaches in the country. He will have his team ready.
The key to this game will be defense. Iowa allows less than 15 points per game, while the Hoosiers allow more than 26. If the Hoosiers can put Iowa quarterback Ricky Stanzi on the ground and keep the running game under control, they may be able to hang around.
But IU's offense will have to score points in both halves if they want to pull the upset. Scoring 21 points in the first quarter and expecting the defense to hold the lead the rest of the game is not going to cut it. It certainly didn't work last week.
I think the Hoosier defense plays well, but the offense never gets on track. Iowa wins 17-3.
By the way, I'll be updating on Twitter, at least until the game gets out of control.
Friday, October 30, 2009
A more pleasant subject
While I continue to lament the symbolic end of football season, the good news is there are only five days until the men's basketball team begins its season.
The first game is Wednesday: an exhibition against Grace College. Ironically, Grace is in Winona Lake, about an 45 minutes west of Fort Wayne. Unfortunately, that game, as well as the other exhibition against St. Joseph's College of Indiana will be nothing more than lay-ups.
I do not expect to learn much about this team until later in the month, when the Hoosiers head to Puerto Rico for the O'Reilly Auto Parts Puerto Rico Tip Off. The Hoosiers take on Ole Miss Nov. 19 in the first round of the tournament.
The Rebels were 16-15 last year, after suffering several injuries. This year, the team is expected to be much better and is picked to finish second in the SEC West division. This game will be an important measuring stick for the development of IU's now veteran sophomores and junior college transfers, as well as its heralded recruiting class.
The big test before the conference season begins will come in early December. Three games in two weeks: versus Maryland in Bloomington, versus Pittsburgh in New York, and versus Kentucky in Bloomington.
The Maryland game will be on ESPN2 as part of the ACC-Big Ten challenge. The Pitt game is on ESPN as part of the Jimmy V Classic and the UK game is a rivalry game on CBS. All three are national TV games, all three against top-tier programs. I'll find out how good they are after these three games. An upset of any of these teams would be a big step forward.
Big Ten play begins New Year's Eve and that road will be anything but smooth.
After I saw the pre-season AP and coaches' polls, I was surprised to find six Big Ten teams in the AP and five in the coaches' poll. And Michigan State and Purdue were both ranked in the top 10. If the voters are correct, this could be one of the toughest Big Ten seasons ever.
That doesn't lend a whole lot of confidence in the Hoosiers rebounding for a 20-win season this year. But I still think the team could finish better than .500 and possible get into the NIT. If they get a few breaks and the freshmen play better than expected, who knows, the Hoosiers could be dancing in March.
The first game is Wednesday: an exhibition against Grace College. Ironically, Grace is in Winona Lake, about an 45 minutes west of Fort Wayne. Unfortunately, that game, as well as the other exhibition against St. Joseph's College of Indiana will be nothing more than lay-ups.
I do not expect to learn much about this team until later in the month, when the Hoosiers head to Puerto Rico for the O'Reilly Auto Parts Puerto Rico Tip Off. The Hoosiers take on Ole Miss Nov. 19 in the first round of the tournament.
The Rebels were 16-15 last year, after suffering several injuries. This year, the team is expected to be much better and is picked to finish second in the SEC West division. This game will be an important measuring stick for the development of IU's now veteran sophomores and junior college transfers, as well as its heralded recruiting class.
The big test before the conference season begins will come in early December. Three games in two weeks: versus Maryland in Bloomington, versus Pittsburgh in New York, and versus Kentucky in Bloomington.
The Maryland game will be on ESPN2 as part of the ACC-Big Ten challenge. The Pitt game is on ESPN as part of the Jimmy V Classic and the UK game is a rivalry game on CBS. All three are national TV games, all three against top-tier programs. I'll find out how good they are after these three games. An upset of any of these teams would be a big step forward.
Big Ten play begins New Year's Eve and that road will be anything but smooth.
After I saw the pre-season AP and coaches' polls, I was surprised to find six Big Ten teams in the AP and five in the coaches' poll. And Michigan State and Purdue were both ranked in the top 10. If the voters are correct, this could be one of the toughest Big Ten seasons ever.
That doesn't lend a whole lot of confidence in the Hoosiers rebounding for a 20-win season this year. But I still think the team could finish better than .500 and possible get into the NIT. If they get a few breaks and the freshmen play better than expected, who knows, the Hoosiers could be dancing in March.
Saturday, October 24, 2009
Football season over
This loss hurts more than the blow-out at Virginia. The Hoosiers were up 28-3 half way through the second quarter, but still managed to lose to Northwestern, 29-28.
The Hoosiers gave up 14 points in the final 4 minutes of the first half to give the Wildcats hope, then did not score a point in the second half. The offense was stopped on 4th and goal from the 1 yard line in the third quarter, which likely sealed the loss. Northwestern had turned the ball over for a second time in the quarter and still were down 28-19 after IU had a punt blocked for a safety.
An IU touchdown would have put the game out of reach and a field goal would have increased the lead to 12. Instead the Hoosiers got no points and Northwestern converted the turnover into a touchdown, which cut the deficit to two.
The winning score came on a Northwestern field goal with 21 seconds left. Unfortunately, I can't fault the IU defense for its inability to stop the Wildcats when the game was on the line. The Hoosiers forced three turnovers in the second half, which the IU offense could not convert into points. Northwestern gave the Hoosiers opportunities to put the game away, but IU refused to finish.
I think the story of the 2009 Hoosiers is they are a 30-minute team. The Hoosiers were able to play well in the first half, but consistently fell apart in the second. An inability to finish caused losses to Northwestern and Michigan and made several other games closer than they should have been.
Barring two miracle wins in the next four games, the IU season is essentially over. The Hoosiers play Iowa, Wisconsin and Penn State before finishing the year at home against Purdue. Now that the Boilers are playing better these past two weeks, it is entirely possible the Hoosiers could lose out. Fortunately for me, that would mean my season prediction (4-8) would be correct.
Maybe that's not such a bad thing. I think the coaching staff needs to be changed and head coach Bill Lynch is in the last year of his deal. Lynch and his staff always seem to have great game plans at kick-off. But when opponents make adjustments, the IU coaches don't seem to be able to counter. Northwestern clearly made an offensive and defensive adjustment when IU took the early lead. Throughout the second half, IU seemed to play right into Wildcats' hands.
Throughout the season, it has not been superior opponents like Ohio State that have stymied the Hoosiers. Eastern Kentucky and Northwestern did not allow any IU points in the second half. IU was 1-1 in those games and both games were decided by a touchdown or less.
Western Michigan, Michigan, Ohio State, and Virginia also outscored IU in the second half. The Hoosiers were 1-3 in those games, including two that were decided by four points or less.
It is an alarming statistic, especially given the talent IU has on both sides of the ball this year. To me, it means someone is unwilling or unable to change when the other team figures out the game plan. It is not coaching that long-term will help rebuild the IU football program.
The Hoosiers gave up 14 points in the final 4 minutes of the first half to give the Wildcats hope, then did not score a point in the second half. The offense was stopped on 4th and goal from the 1 yard line in the third quarter, which likely sealed the loss. Northwestern had turned the ball over for a second time in the quarter and still were down 28-19 after IU had a punt blocked for a safety.
An IU touchdown would have put the game out of reach and a field goal would have increased the lead to 12. Instead the Hoosiers got no points and Northwestern converted the turnover into a touchdown, which cut the deficit to two.
The winning score came on a Northwestern field goal with 21 seconds left. Unfortunately, I can't fault the IU defense for its inability to stop the Wildcats when the game was on the line. The Hoosiers forced three turnovers in the second half, which the IU offense could not convert into points. Northwestern gave the Hoosiers opportunities to put the game away, but IU refused to finish.
I think the story of the 2009 Hoosiers is they are a 30-minute team. The Hoosiers were able to play well in the first half, but consistently fell apart in the second. An inability to finish caused losses to Northwestern and Michigan and made several other games closer than they should have been.
Barring two miracle wins in the next four games, the IU season is essentially over. The Hoosiers play Iowa, Wisconsin and Penn State before finishing the year at home against Purdue. Now that the Boilers are playing better these past two weeks, it is entirely possible the Hoosiers could lose out. Fortunately for me, that would mean my season prediction (4-8) would be correct.
Maybe that's not such a bad thing. I think the coaching staff needs to be changed and head coach Bill Lynch is in the last year of his deal. Lynch and his staff always seem to have great game plans at kick-off. But when opponents make adjustments, the IU coaches don't seem to be able to counter. Northwestern clearly made an offensive and defensive adjustment when IU took the early lead. Throughout the second half, IU seemed to play right into Wildcats' hands.
Throughout the season, it has not been superior opponents like Ohio State that have stymied the Hoosiers. Eastern Kentucky and Northwestern did not allow any IU points in the second half. IU was 1-1 in those games and both games were decided by a touchdown or less.
Western Michigan, Michigan, Ohio State, and Virginia also outscored IU in the second half. The Hoosiers were 1-3 in those games, including two that were decided by four points or less.
It is an alarming statistic, especially given the talent IU has on both sides of the ball this year. To me, it means someone is unwilling or unable to change when the other team figures out the game plan. It is not coaching that long-term will help rebuild the IU football program.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)